BAT-ADAPT
MODEL

CONSISTENCY WITH THE EUROPEAN TAXONOMY

Given the different regulatory requirements, especially those of the EU Taxonomy the climate exposure analysis model must meet different criteria.

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Criterion 1 : The climate exposure analysis should be based on the highest resolution 'state-of-the-art' climate projections available.

 

Criterion 2 : The risk assessment should be prospective and consistent with the duration of the activity, i.e. a minimum of 50 years for buildings.

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Criterion 3 :  The scenarios used must be multiple and consistent with the work of the IPCC, based on open-source or fee-based models.

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The analysis model will therefore be processed from sources allowing the presence of prospective data, in relation to 3 IPCC scenarios: 

• The ambitious scenario, with a climate policy aiming at decreasing CO2 concentrations, these are the RCP2.6 or SSP1-2.6 scenarios,

• The intermediate scenario, with a climate policy aiming at stabilizing CO2 concentrations, these are the RCP 4.5 or SSP2-4.5 scenarios,

• The Business-as-Usual scenario, without climate policy, these are the RCP 8.5 or SSP5-8.5 scenarios.

The choice of these scenarios responds to a desire for exhaustiveness of the trajectories taken into account as well as a desire to harmonise the information available to process the various climate indicators.

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Different time horizons will also be taken into account, given the needs for estimating the evolution of climatic hazards. There are 5 time horizons included in the analysis for the France model: 2020, 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090 and 3 time horizons for the Europe model: Short (2030), Medium (2050) or Long term (2090).

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The two major data sources are the Interactive atlas of the IPCC et the DRIAS Les futurs du climat platform. Each data source and data processing will be detailed below.

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SELECTION OF CLIMATE HAZARDS

 

The selection of climatic hazards that will be taken into account in the tool falls under the Taxonomy, the TCFD and the Energy Climate Law. Of the hazards proposed in the European Taxonomy hazard classification table, the hazards identified as relevant to the real estate sector are:

• Heats (Thermal stress, heat waves, etc.);

• Droughts & Shrinkage Swelling of Clays;

• Rainfall and flooding (Changes in precipitation patterns and types, heavy precipitation, rainfall flooding, rising groundwater, etc.); 

• Coastal dynamics (Coastal erosion, seawater infiltration, sea level rise);

• Storms and strong winds (Changing wind patterns, cyclones, hurricanes, typhoons, storms, tornadoes, etc.);

• Forest fires:

• Extreme colds;

• Ground movements (Avalanches, landslides, subsidence);